The National Hurricane Center

In less than a month, it's going to be that time of year again ....

As a weather forecaster for the U.S. Navy, I get the opportunity to deal with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on a near daily basis starting June 1st and lasting through December 1st.

This will be my last opportunity to work with the NHC before I officially retire and sail off into that sunset known as civilian life. Through the years, I have to admit, working with the NHC has more than been entertaining.

They are smart guys and are good at their profession. The majority of them have years of experience and education behind them. Sometimes, though, too much education can be a hinder to the forecasting process and you just have to go with your gut instincts or be brave enough to say, 'ya know, I ain't got a clue as to where Mother Nature is going to send this one!"

Of course, the NHC does not operate that way. It is, after all, funded by the U.S. Government. Every year, it must fight to justify it's budget requirements. They have been over-creative by making overblown hurricane predictions ensuring that at least one 'monster storm' will threaten the coast of the United States. A good part of the time, they are correct, other times you would think it was time for them to throw away those tarot cards and chicken bones they use.

I have attended many of the conference calls the NHC and the US Navy have to coordinate their hurricane forecasts. I understand that money is tight but sometimes it seems that they will make up a storm that isn't a storm. They will take the slightest tropical disturbance (meaning an area of thunderstorms) and call it a tropical depression even though it may not have the upper level atmospheric support or it's just a short lived incident. Still, numbers will be numbers and the NHC is guilty of padding those hurricane forecast numbers. The discussions sometimes can take on a comical bend as they tend to make up theories to support their imaginary storms. It's as if 150 years of science, history and physics gets thrown out the door with the trash as you listen to a man with a college degree rewrite science to fit his theory.

Anyway, the 2007 hurricane season is going to be fast upon us. Buy your tickets now and get a good seat before the show starts.